Milwaukee Brewers at New York Mets
Moneyline: MIL +150/NYM -170
Series: MIL +175/NYM -210
First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
TV: SNY, MLB Network
Probable pitchers: Chase Anderson (2-0, 3.00 ERA) vs. Jacob deGrom (2-2, 3.68 ERA)
One of the most important games on the young campaign for the Mets comes this evening when the Amazin's open up a three-game set with the struggling Brewers at Citi Field.
All eyes will be on deGrom as he gets set to make his first start following a concerning stint on the injured list, where he resided with elbow soreness. Not only that, deGrom's arrival on the 10-day IL followed a very curious rough patch that saw the reigning National League Cy Young get tagged for nine runs over two assignments. Just as shocking, neither performance clocked in as a quality start.
Fortunately, deGrom may be catching a normally tough batting order at the right time. Milwaukee enters this showdown losers in seven of their last eight to drop to the .500 mark, and within that stretch, they totaled only 27 runs.
The Brewers also strike out a bunch, leading the league in K's as a team. That can only be of assistance for a strikeout artist like deGrom to get back into form, although he's going to have to be especially careful when Christian Yelich takes his swings. The 2018 NL MVP is a career 14-for-32 (.438) against deGrom.
Even with this level of uncertainty surrounding the Met ace, the oddsmakers still made him pretty sizable favorite, carrying chalky -170 juice. A lot of that may have to do with the opposing starter, Anderson, who will be making just his second start of the year after a handful of relief appearances.
Anderson has always served as a starter throughout his career, typically providing decent numbers. He was certainly at his best in his first turn in the rotation, when he limited the Dodgers to just one measly hit in five scoreless innings -- and that's the team that ranks first in the NL in runs scored. The Mets are fourth.
How I Would Bet This Game
No matter how you bet this series opener, it's going to boil down to how effective deGrom is in his first start back. It's always tricky dealing with these circumstances but based on deGrom's recent pain-free bullpen session, I'd lean towards having action on the Mets. Since the moneyline is a little pricey at -170 odds, I would take them on the runline with +120 odds, meaning they have to win by more than 1.5 runs.
It's also worth noting that tonight's weather could also be a deciding factor. In case you didn't know, moneyline wagers are the only bets that would count if the game is official while not making it through the ninth inning. Other bets on the outcome get cancelled when the contest is shortened, suspended or postponed.
Should You Bet The Series?
New York is tabbed with heavy -210 odds to win at least two of these three meetings, but it's understandable given the trio of hurlers they have lined up to toe the rubber this weekend. Still, it's not great value and the best idea might be to just take it game by game.