Cincinnati Reds at New York Mets
Moneyline: CIN +140/NYM -150
Series: CIN +130/NYM -160
First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
TV: SNY, ESPN
Probable pitchers: Tanner Roark (1-1, 3.24 ERA) vs. Zack Wheeler (2-2, 4.85 ERA)
A longtime Mets nemesis will be making his return to Citi Field this evening when the Amazin's play the opener of a four-game set with the Reds.
In 16 starts (and six relief appearances) against the Mets, Roark notched an 8-4 record to go with a 3.07 ERA and 1.11 WHIP during his 2013-18 tenure with the Washington Nationals. He's even been stingier than that when facing them on the road, owning a 2.73 ERA in 12 games (nine starts) in Flushing.
Clearly, Roark has been a tough adversary for New York throughout the years and that's a trend bettors must be wary of, especially with how he's looked in his first campaign with the Reds. The 32-year-old has made five starts in his new digs, allowing three runs or fewer each time out.
Fortunately for the Mets, they'll be playing behind their hottest pitcher, Wheeler, who is coming off a fantastic outing that saw him blank a hard-hitting Phillies lineup in seven sharp innings while accumulating a season-high 11 strikeouts.
His recent trifecta of quality starts has quelled the concerns of Mets faithful after the right-hander struggled out of the gates.
Wheeler seems to have settled in and appears to be returning closer to last year's top form, when he finished with career-best marks in ERA (3.31), WHIP (1.12) and batting average against (.225).
It's been a long time coming for the former sixth overall draft pick following a stretch that saw him sit out two full seasons due to injury. Wheeler has a chance to keep the momentum going, as the Reds rank 26th in baseball in runs scored. They've especially been limited as of late, topping four runs only twice in their last 13 ballgames.
How I Would Bet This Game
The Mets' moneyline odds (-150) sit a tad bit too high for the type of opponent they'll be facing -- a pitcher that has shut them down often in the past. At the same time, it would be tough to bet the underdog Reds (+140) given Wheeler's re-emergence. Thus, it might be best to focus on the total and go with the under.
Should You Bet The Series?
Again, the Mets are priced too high (-160), meaning there's really not much value to be had. The way the rest of their pitching staff's been going, it just doesn't seem like a smart bet trusting them over a full series at the moment. Just stick to the individual games.