New York Mets at Miami Marlins
Moneyline: NYM -205/MIA +175
Series: NYM -350/MIA +280
First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
Probable pitchers: Jacob deGrom (3-4, 3.26 ERA) vs. Trevor Richards (0-5, 4.46 ERA)
When the Mets saw Miami last weekend, they entered that series having lost five of six to drop below .500, and in need of a cure-all.
Enter the last-place Marlins, who New York beat handily in both meetings (the third was postponed). Since then, though, the Mets have once again fallen under the .500 mark thanks to their showing against the Washington Nationals this week. Now they'll hope for a bit of deja vu.
Fortunately, the Amazins' will have their ace on the hill to kick things off. It will be deGrom's second assignment opposite Miami in a seven-day span, and as expected, the reigning National League Cy Young Award winner was terrific in the first, holding his fellow NL East residents to just one run over seven sharp innings.
While it can be an advantage to hitters when a lineup is seeing a pitcher again so quickly, it shouldn't matter in this instance. DeGrom has been nothing short of stellar in his dates with the Marlins, holding a 3.24 ERA and striking out 143 batters across 114 career innings against the fish.
It will be deGrom's third time seeing Miami in 2019. When he first saw them back in early-April, the 30-year-old enjoyed one of the best performances of his career, notching seven shutout innings to go with a career-best 14 K's (not to mention helping out his own cause at the plate in launching a homer). Bettors can expect similar deGrominance in this one, especially since he'll be facing a club that's lost seven in a row, scoring no more than two runs in all seven.
That doesn't mean a win here is a sure thing, however. Don't be misled by the win-loss record of deGrom's counterpart, as Richards has actually been better than his current 0-5 predicament.
In the majority of his eight starts, Richards has limited the opponent to three runs or fewer. While he's logged only one quality start in his last five trips to the mound, Richards did fare well against the Mets earlier in the campaign, yielding three runs and racking up a season-high-tying seven strikeouts in six effective frames.
How I Would Bet This Game
Obviously, it's always tempting to bet on deGrom whenever he squares off with a weak opponent. But the odds of taking the favorite in this one aren't too kind, as it would require Mets bettors to wager $205 just to win $100. So, I would advise those seeking action on the game to ponder the under. Right now, the total sits at 6.5, but with the possibility it goes to 7, wait for that potential line movement and bet the game's final score to finish on the low side.
Should You Bet The Series?
Normally, I'd advise not to bet a series with such a high price tag, but the Marlins are reeling with their historically-bad offense -- and are about to see the creme de la creme of the Mets pitching staff. Thus, don't be afraid to make a small bet here.